For investors who have invested in silver, surely you are aware that 2013 is one of the worst years for silver market. 2014 could be the year for silver price to rebound and here is the top 3 reasons:
1. Mining Cost
During the 3rd quarter of 2013, silver mining costs averaged $21.39/oz. In the past 2 months, silver has been fluctuating below $20.40 which is below mining cost.
If it costs more to mine silver than the market is willing to pay for, eventually the producers will stop producing silver. A logical question to ask is why would someone spend RM1.00 to produce a product that can only be sold for RM0.90?
Ironically, this is what exactly happening in silver market. These are the type of situation value investors dream of because it allows them to purchase silver at a great discounted price. Such environment (below production cost) cannot last for long time because it does not make sense to produce anything to sell it for lower than production cost. Eventually silver supply will be cut, then scarcity, and eventually silver price will jump.
2. Technically oversold
The bull market of silver started at the end of 2001. From $ 4.02 to recent all-time high of $48.42 (increase of 1,104%). Several significant corrections took place. The most severe one was in 2008 when the silver price dropped by 57% then to jump 441% to a new all-time high.
As shown above, silver price is in an oversold position. The situation is worse than in 2008 or in 2001. Such positions have always been followed by strong upward movements. After 2008, silver rose 441%. Some precious metals (gold and silver) shares even jumped 2,800%!
However, do not get overly excited with shares profit. Gold and silver stocks are more volatile than the real gold and silver. During uptrend, the profits soared higher; during downtrend, the losses would also be more significant. If you are new to precious metal investment, it is best to buy the metal itself than to buy the companies that owns the metals. It is hard work to select the right companies and to monitor them. You need to know the company management and understand their long term plan. That potentially makes your silver investment more complicated than necessary.
3. Asia Demand
India and China continue to be the largest buyers of gold and silver in the world.
In 2013, India government has made several attempts to slow down demand for gold. India government increased import taxes to 10% for gold bullion and 15% for gold jewelry. That has resulted Indians to move their attention to silver. Between Jan and Sep 2013, silver imports to India totaled more than 4,000 tonnes, already more than whole year of 2012. Silver imports jumped 40% from 241 tonnes (in Sept 2013) to 338 tonnes (in Oct 2013).
When China government is urbanizing 250 million citizens, that will require a lot of copper and other commodities. The government continues to source for renewable energies, which means an enormous push for photovoltaics and physical silver. Enormous demand for physical silver will be required by photovoltaics that will come from China and Japan.
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